Hindsight Report for February 28, 2006

How do you like the market dumping 120 points on a few statements by Google's CFO, especially since the same info was released in their 10K on JANUARY 30TH! I guess investors are a little jumpy these days. It is too bad I didn't have any cash as I would have bought some more GOOG shares around $350 today.

Anyway, with the big sell off there were only a few stocks showing up on my watch list today:

AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 2.45%
PENN Penn National Gaming 4.90%
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc 1.74%
WBMD WebMD Health Corp Cl A 1.61%
WMS WMS Indus 1.79%

Hey, 2 of the five stocks I wrote about last week! Read post here.


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Hindsight Report for Monday the 27th of February

The market was solid today and there were many stocks that performed well. Stocks I would have liked to own today:

ADSK Autodesk, Inc 2.69% --Manufacturer of AutoCad engineering software enjoys another good session
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals 4.89% --Know anyone with diabetes? Amylin's main drug is a diabetes treatment
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 3.25% --First of today's broker/exchange stocks, also a repeat offender on the hindsight report.
CHH Choice Hotels Intl 1.88% --Up 1.85% on Friday, another 1.88% today--solid stock.
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc 2.46% --This freight forwarder/logistics company has enjoyed steady growth in its stock the last couple of months...
CME Chicago Merc Exch 3.16% --Another exchange stock. I traded CME this fall and had a hard time with it, but it has had a huge recovery and is growing faster than Google right now...
FFIV F5 Networks 2.47% --This Seattle internet traffic firm is showing up on the hindsight report everyday...
GILD Gilead Sciences 3.26% --With great HIV and Bird Flu products, this stock should be considered for every portfolio.
HOMS Homestore Inc 3.05% --Online service provider to the real-estate industry
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp New 3.63% --Boosted by a Barron's cover story and Ask.com propaganda, a nice move by Barry Diller's empire
ITRN Ituran Location & Control Ltd 4.89% --Israeli company, makers of GPS anti-theft devices for vehicles, popular stock lately
NTRI NutriSystem Inc 2.56% --We are soooo overweight and so is Nutrisystem's stock price--but we and it continue to pack on the pounds....
OATS Wild Oats Markets 3.45% --Surging organic food store, nudging its way into Whole Foods niche
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico 2.44% --Recent IPO, manages many airports in growing markets of Mexico, including Guadalajara...
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 2.50% --Oil was down sharply today and still this alternative fuel stock went up, that's impressive.
SBUX Starbucks Corp 2.17% --Seattle company with many doubters but a strong stock. Word is when they open a store in suburban areas across the street from an existing Starbucks, the original store's sales do not drop! New customers arrive at the new store that didn't want to turn left to go to the old store...
SOLD HouseValues Inc 2.69% --another online real-estate company. Personally, I prefer Zillow.com because you don't have to register and you won't be contacted by realtors like with housevalues.com
STP Suntech Power Holdings 4.13% --this Chinese solar panel company has pulled back in the last few days and may be poised for another run upwards
TKO Telkonet Inc 2.25% --This company's technology delivers high-speed internet over electric power lines and delivers the internet to each electric outlet, no modem required.
WMS WMS Industries 2.44% --This slot machine and gaming software manufacturer is performing well of late. See my earlier write up: WMS, a baby-boomer play?


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Google: $300 or $500?

Google is flirting with $400/share after trading up to $475 in January and then all the way down to $337 just a couple of weeks ago my question for you is what will we see first: $300 or $500 a share? It is only a 25% move either way--not a big move by internet stock standards. Please vote by leaving a comment! I'll post the results in future posts.

My take: A run to $500 will happen sometime this May.



Google Office by Gail Nobles
:: Original URL ::

Hindsight Report: Friday February 24

Stocks to have owned on Friday the 24th:

ADSK Autodesk, Inc 2.23% --Software company whose main product is AutoCAD.
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 2.35% --Ameritrade is one of Cramer's favorites. Part of exciting broker/exchange sector.
BBD Banco Bradesco 2.55% --Another of Cramer's faves, this Brazilian bank is a high flyer. Brazil is enjoying 4%+ GDP growth again in 2006.
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 2.80% --A VOIP stock, I don't know much about them.
CD Cendant Corp 3.19% --I'm watching this stock because it is planning to spin-off assets, I probably wouldn't purchase this because some horrible management issues...
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 1.90% --What is going on with this stock? It seems to be up everyday.
DDDC Deltathree Inc 5.96% --Another VOIP stock.
FFIV F5 Networks 4.50% --Seattle based internet traffic company at an all time high.
HOMS Homestore Inc 5.59% --Provides internet services for the real estate industry. Could be going up on the Zillow.com craze....
ITRN Ituran Location & Control Ltd 7.82% --Israeli company, provides GPS anti theft technology
LRW Labor Ready 2.72% --Headquartered in Tacoma WA, this provider of day labor will do well in a low unemployment environment, watch out if the construction industry experiences a slow down though.
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market Inc 4.15% --broker/exchange sector, this stock is up significantly in 2006
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 4.99% --Threats to the Nigerian and Saudi oil supplies means this stock goes up...(And I didn't trade it because....???)
PHO PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (ETF) 3.29% --This ETF is a portfolio of water stocks. Water=Blue Gold in the West...this is a good retirement account holding as water shortages will be a long term story
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc 2.51% --Software to facilitate the financing aspect of auto dealerships...Recent IPO.
VCLK Valueclick Inc 2.84% --Online advertising firm
WBMD WebMD Health Corp 3.39% --Online health information distibutor

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Hindsight Report for Thursday February 23, 2006

Stocks that would have been nice to own today:

AMX America Movil 2.48% Latin Mobile company with another day on the hindsight report...
BIVN Bioenvision Inc 9.61% A stock I have traded previously, moving up today after receiving European approval of their Luekemia drug, Clofarabine.
CETV Central Euro Media 6.23% Wow, a bigger than expected move today
CHH Choice Hotels Intl 1.85% Ho hum, up another 1.85%...
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 4.40% HOTT recent IPO. I've never been to one...
CX Cemex 2.19% Largest producer of cement in Mexico, 2nd largest in US
HANS Hansen Natural 6.16% Don't you ever count HANS out. Getting close again to an all time high
HOMS Homestore Inc 9.87% Who is scared of slowing home sales?
IPS IPSCO Inc 4.36% A random steel stock up today.
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc 2.11% Mostly an exchange for options
RMBS Rambus Inc 13.23% Wacky stock up big today....
SCSS Select Comfort 2.43% Dumb infomercials, empty stores, good stock!?
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc 2.55% Going up on good news from its biggest customer, Garmin, and news that all cell phones will soon have GPS chips
SUF SulphCo Inc 26.92% I've been burned before by SulphCo (see previous post). Up huge today. The stock is still down 60% or so from its highs in mid-January. BE CAREFUL!!
WBMD WebMD Health Corp 1.66% Nice performing stock.


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Hindsight Report for Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals
ARRS Arris Group
BIVN Bioenvision Inc
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc
BSC Bear Stearns Cos
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc
CME Chicago Merc Exch Hld'A'
GILD Gilead Sciences
HOMS Homestore Inc
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp New
IBAS Ibasis Inc
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc
LRW Labor Ready
NTRI NutriSystem Inc
NTRS Northern Trust
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc
SBUX Starbucks Corp
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc
SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio
TEVA Teva Pharm Indus ADR
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc
VCLK Valueclick Inc
YHOO Yahoo Inc
YMI YM Biosciences Inc

A couple that I did own went up nicely as well! (finally....)

Hana Biosciences (HBX) and Apple (AAPL) were up 17% and 3% respectively! Whole Foods (WFMI) was down again...WTF!??!?

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Hindsight Report for Tipsy Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

CHS Chico's Fas--80% annual growth. Great to own if you can buy it low.
IBAS Ibasis Inc--another VOIP stock!
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc--A major options exchange
JSDA Jones Soda--Seattle based energy and alternative beverage stock
NTMD NitroMed Inc--The company is developing BiDil, a nitric oxide-enhancing drug candidate, for the treatment of African Americans diagnosed with heart failure. Made news last year because it's drug is designed for specific ethnicities.
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc--As long as your Commander in Chief keeps talking about "oil addiction" and insists on swaying to midwest lobbyists, this stock should keep up its exponetial growth
SOLD HouseValues Inc--Zillow.com isn't public, so this stock is getting a run?
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd--Oil up again today, so is this solar power play
VLTS Valentis Inc--Repeat offender in the hindsight list, developing treatment for P.A.D.
YMI YM Biosciences Inc--Biotech with cancer drugs in development

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Hindsight on Frigid Friday, February 17, 2006

Stocks looking good today:

CETV Central Euro Media--cable company adding new customers in Eastern Europe: including VOIP...
CHH Choice Hotels Intl--this stock is on a tear since the hurricane--I just recently added it to my watch list.
FFIV F5 Networks--Seattle company, internet traffic management
MOH Molina Healthcare--Stock was thrashed in 2005, trying to recover
OATS Wild Oats Markets--Investors seem to have switched from Whole Foods (WFMI) to Wild Oats.
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd--Oil prices up, so is STP! Nobody cares that it is a Chinese company?
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc--Automotive software company that helps dealerships smooth out the financing process, recent IPO.
VLTS Valentis Inc--Biotech developing P.A.D. treatment.
YMI YM Biosciences Inc--Biotech with a cancer fighting portfolio

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Hindsight Report for Thursday, February 16, 2006

Bernanke was grilled by the Senate today and stocks slowly moved up throughout. It looks like investors are afraid of being left behind and are jumping in. We look to be experiencing what will likely be a short-term rally. Here are some stocks I would have liked to own today:

AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals--2 diabetes drugs on the market (Symlin and Byetta)
AMX America Movil--Mexican cellular provider continuing its February rally
BBD Banco Bradesco--Huge technical breakout today for this Brazilian stock. Use stops with this one.
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc--Continues its move up after a breakout earlier this week.
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc--Recently spun-off of McDonalds, I'm guessing some institutional players have been initiating positions recently.
DDDC Deltathree Inc--Offers an outsourcing, reseller, and consumer VOIP offerings.
DIET Ediets.com Inc--Etailer offering a matrix of diet options
HANS Hansen Natural--MONSTER energy drinks
NTRI NutriSystem Inc--Along with Ediets.com above, NutriSystem is in its most profitable time of the year...still a lot of resolution dieting in play (including myself!!)
OATS Wild Oats Markets--Up 18% today on a blistering earnings report and upside guidance, natural foods are still a huge, high-margin growth market.
POOL SCP Pool--Throw this in the Baby-boomer portfolio, lots of new pools going in and then they need to be maintained.
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions--Manages inpatient psychiatric clinics, is this a Baby-boomer play too? :)
SOLD HouseValues Inc--A little sloppy technically, this online real-estate company (from Seattle) will do well as long as the home values keep going up...
STP Suntech Power Holdings--Chinese solar power company, drooling over high oil prices

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Hindsight Report for Bernanke Wednseday, February 15

Stocks in my radar that I would have liked to own:

AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals--Biotech developing traetments for diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular
AMX America Movil--Largest cell provider in Mexico. Branching into other parts of Latin America through acquistion and organic growth
BIVN Bioenvision Inc--Just reported nice earnings on their Leukemia drug.
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc--Up.
CHS Chico's Fas--This high-end retailer has been impressive in February
DOC Digital Angel--RFID company, one of its markets is tagging cattle (there are lots of cows out there!
DVA Davita Inc--(see previous post). Nice looking stock here.
HANS Hansen Natural--(see previous post).
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc--Exchange and broker stocks still in motion.
NWRE Neoware Inc--Internet traffic company
PENN Penn National Gaming--(see previous post). Great earnings.
PHO PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio--This ETF covers water industry stocks, an obvious play, especially for those of us living in the West.
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions--(see previous post).
SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio--Can anyone PLEASE tell me why you would buy this stock?
STP Suntech Power Holdings--Chinese solar power company.
WMS WMS Industries--(see previous post).

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Hindsight Prelude: HANS, WMS, PENN, PSYS, and DVA

I feel like sharing some of my thoughts on a few stocks that are moving well today:

HANS Hansen Natural--Growth here is being driven by energy drink sales. Are energy drinks a fad? Can the company keep up its growth? Is it rediculously overvalued? Are their accounting practices questionable? Some like Hank Greenberg (sign up for his now FREE newsletter!), have consistently panned HANS, but the stock just keeps going up. It is down 18% from its all time high of $104, but looks to be in a good buying area. You would want to be ready for some volatility and should set a hard stop.

WMS WMS Insdustries--This manufacturer of slot machines, other gaming devices, and gaming software is on fire! Anecdotally, (mind you, I would never trade off of only anecdotal info...) a personal acquaintence of mine works for WMS in Chicago and he is VERY busy and claims that they are busier than ever. Beyond that, the company was just upgraded and gaming is on an exponential growth curve to the upside and in a demographic sweetspot (baby boomers). The stock had a big breakout today, stopping at its 200 day moving average. If it goes up throught the average tomorrow, this looks like a nice place to try it out.

PENN Penn National Gaming--The second half of my gaming stocks tandem for today, Penn just announced a more than doubling of the 4th quarter earnings. The stock responded with a big move today. Penn owns and operates casino properties and horse tracks throughout the US (important as they do have property in Louisiana, but are geographically diverse, limiting the risk of hurricanes, etc). Before today's exciting, high-volume move to the upside, the stock was already making a nice bounce off of a low set in late January. This is a good gamble above its breakout of $34/share.

PSYS Psychiatric Solutions--This company manages inpatient mental health facilities throughout the US. Again, anecdotal evidence would give lots of reason to believe that this company has unlimited upside, why, just drive on your local freeway during rush hour or hang out at a downtown bus station to see...Seriously, the stock is making frequent contact with its 5o day moving average, giving one many opportunities to pick it up with a reasonable risk/reward scenario.

DVA Davita--My last stock for today is Davita, a provider of dialysis services, through its own clinics and by providing dialysis material to hospitals and clinics. This company is another example of how powerful the baby boomer phenomena will be. While the stock is a little high after today's big move, it is one to watch and maybe pick up on future weakness.

Please add your comments about these stocks if you have any.

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Hindsight on Turnaround Tuesday, February 14

Every trader loves a Turnaround Tuesday, better yet on Valentines Day! Alot of stocks have been taking nonstop punishment for the last month and are starting to make their turnarounds. Is this a dead-cat bounce? Or is the market setting up for a rally as I mentioned last week? Personally I'm 100% invested now, I think we'll go up here for the short-term.

Some stocks I would have liked to own:

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc
CHS Chico's Fas
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
CX Cemex S.A. ADS
DDDC Deltathree Inc
DIET Ediets.com Inc
DOC Digital Angel
EGHT 8x8 Inc
IPS IPSCO Inc
LRW Labor Ready
MOH Molina Healthcare
MOT Motorola, Inc
NWRE Neoware Inc
QCOM Qualcomm Inc
RNWK RealNetworks Inc
TKO Telkonet Inc

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Hindsight Report for Monday, February 13, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

Other than Tradestation (TRAD) that I do own, there wasn't much on my watch list today. The market was much weaker than the relatively mild losses in the indices would indicate....

BOT CBOT Holdings Inc -- Nice breakout today, looks poised to move up for awhile.
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc -- Ethanol is still a buzz word, hence stock going up, not a long-term investment...
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions -- manages inpatient psychiatric clinics (watch the news and you'll see why this stock keeps going up....)
TEVA Teva Pharmacies -- huge generic drug manufacturer

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Hindsight Report for Friday, February 10

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

BBD Banco Bradesco -- Brazilian bank getting close to its 52 wk high
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc -- The exchange/broker group is only selectively hot now
CETV Central Euro Media -- Eastern European Cable TV company, big growth--also offering VOIP and video on demand...
DIET Ediets.com Inc -- On the list again...
DNA Genentech Inc -- Long absence from my watch list, could be making a comeback
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp -- Tough company to understand. Barry Diller is trying to work some magic.
JSDA Jones Soda -- Seattle niche soda/energy drink company with a beautiful breakout today
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc -- Speculative movement in this stock
TEVA Teva Pharm Indus ADR -- Israeli generic drug company
YMI YM Biosciences Inc -- A cancer biotech has been going gangbusters all of February.


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Hindsight Report for Thursday February 9, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

ADSK Autodesk, Inc
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals
BBD Banco Bradesco SA Pfd ADS
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc
CTLM Centillium Communications
DDDC Deltathree Inc
DOC Digital Angel
GIL Gildan Activewear Inc
NTRI NutriSystem Inc
PENN Penn National Gaming
SOLD HouseValues Inc
WMS WMS Indus

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Hindsight Report for Wednesday February 8, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own:


SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc--one of my favorite stocks to trade, close to all time highs
DIET Ediets.com Inc--Who isn't overweight?
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc--Volatile as heck, be careful with this one. When oil prices are trending up, this is a good stock to be in, but with a tight stop
HANS Hansen Natural--recovering from a big sell off.
SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio--I dislike the business model of Sirius, but will trade for $.
HOMS Homestore Inc--Going up on Zillow hype?
NWRE Neoware Systems--Thin-client computer company growing steadily
RNWK RealNetworks Inc--A classic "channelingstocks.com" chart between $5 and $7, now breaking out into the stratosphere.
MOT Motorola, Inc--Great quarter, cute phones
WBMD WebMD Health Corp--Do you use the internet to search for medical advice? Someone is...
DISCA Discovery Holding Co--A 2005 spin-off from John Malone's Liberty Media, is actually only a 50% owner of the Discovery Channel, the rest is held privately
AMX America Movil--Hott Mexican cellular company, EVERYONE has a cell phone in the bigger cities of Mexico
EGHT 8x8 Inc--VOIP company, wild stock
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc--freight logistics company, see John Markman's discussion: he makes a good case for owning this company
QCOM Qualcomm Inc--nothing to say
SCSS Select Comfort--empty stores, great earnings. Go figure.
CHS Chico's Fas--Just acquired a small boutique company. Huge growth story.

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Hindsight Report for Tuesday Februrary 7, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

MOT Motorola, Inc
MOH Molina Healthcare
ADSK Autodesk, Inc

This is the smallest group ever. While the Dow Jones was only down 0.5%, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index was down 1.5%. And very few stocks were up. 3 of my 6 holdings were up but GOOG and TRAD were both down over 4%. The one bright spot was CWTR up 1.37% on the day.

This meager Hindsight offering could be the sign of a market bottom, probably in the next week. All momentum stocks were slammed today. Look for large caps and safe stocks to slowly come back and then mo-mo stocks will follow with a vengeance, perhaps by Friday...We'll see, but you read it here first.

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A new day...

The Seahawks lost, my portfolio is severely underperforming the market and I am way behind my goal of 50% for the year.

Time to regroup. Tonight, I'll be thoroughly analyzing my core positions: GOOG, AAPL, and WFMI. I don't plan on selling them here but I could trim some of my positions and lower my core stocks to 40-50% of my overall portfolio....

Also, I need to look at my current trades: Nordstroms, Tradestation, and Coldwater Creek.
I'm at 5% cash only.

There are great stocks to be found, just look at the charts the Hindsight Report stocks.
I'll let you know what I come up with.

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Hindsight Reports for February 3 and 6, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own:

Monday, February 6th

OATS Wild Oats Markets
DVA Davita Inc
ISE International Securities Exchange Inc
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market Inc
CETV Central European Media Entertainment
SCSS Select Comfort
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd
HBX Hana Biosciences Inc
CX Cemex
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc

Friday, February 3rd

BOT CBOT Holdings Inc
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
HAIN Hain Celestial Group
HOMS Homestore Inc
MOH Molina Healthcare
OATS Wild Oats Markets
SCSS Select Comfort
TKO Telkonet Inc

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Hindsight Report for February 2, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:


HBX Hana Biosciences Inc
HXM Desarrolladora Homex SA de CV
JSDA Jones Soda
LRW Labor Ready
OATS Wild Oats Markets
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc
RHEO OccuLogix Inc
SBUX Starbucks Corp
SCSS Select Comfort
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc
SUF SulphCo Inc
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc

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Go Seahawks!!!

Hindsight Report for Wednesday February 1, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

AMGN Amgen Inc -- Powerful Biotech recovering from a weak 2005
BA Boeing Co -- Record earnings...
GME Gamestop Corp -- I don't play video games, but somebody is.
HBX Hana Biosciences Inc -- All time high today (disclosure: my firm owns shares of Hana)
LRW Labor Ready -- Tacoma company, good earnings
MOH Molina Healthcare -- Blew away earnings estimates
PEET Peet's Coffee & Tea -- Quasi competitor to Starbucks (they used to own Starbucks...)
SBUX Starbucks Corp -- 10% year over yhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=trakear same store growth, amazing! And that takes into account stores opening across the street from each other. Saturated markets? No way.
SCSS Select Comfort -- Still don't understand their business model...stores are always empty
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc -- Nice earnings announcement today
TKO Telkonet Inc -- Internet over power lines provider
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc -- Provides software to auto dealers

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Go Seahawks!!!