The Trading Almanac

A diary of investments in my IRA, a daily look at my stock watch list, and additional commentary/discussions on individual stocks, the overall market, economics, technology, etc.

Location: United States

Friday, March 31, 2006

Hindsight Report: Last day of 1st Q 2006

Congrats to Google (GOOG) which will now trade on the S&P500. Google is now down 6% ytd. With Google making up a 38% weighting of my portfolio it is a small miracle that I'm up 1.36% on the year (still down 0.77% after commissions). My benchmark index, the Russell 2000 is up 13.65% on the year, so I have my work cut out for me.

Below are some strong performers today from my watch list:

TKO Telkonet Inc 8.97% --Among other things, this company can set up internet service through the electrical system of a building...
HANS Hansen Natural 5.79% --Oh Hans! One position I sold in Hans last year (after a sizeable gain) would be up over 300% if I would have just held it! There were rumors that Hans and Anheiser Busch signed a distribution agreement today.
JSDA Jones Soda 5.10% --Up in sympathy with Hans? Jones Soda is a Seattle based company with very creative and effective marketing. Except for the Motley Fool, this company is very much under the radar...
NTRI NutriSystem Inc 4.95% --Until America gets skinny (i know, i know), Nutrisystem should keep going up.
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc 4.91% --Largest option exchange enjoying record volumes
NTMD NitroMed Inc 4.34% --This biotech was up today because it layed off more than 1/3 of its workers...
DOC Digital Angel 3.12% --this is a RFID tag company which is set to install the largest RFID tower in the world in the Columbia River Gorge to count salmon...The company is majority owned by Applied Digital (ADSX)
PEET Peet's Coffee & Tea 3.06% --Starbucks' inspiration, Peets is just starting an aggressive expansion
EXPE Expedia Inc 2.37% --I watch this stock because I am intrigued by spin-offs but not sure it is one I would ever own...
MOH Molina Healthcare 2.04% --my insurance company!

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Hindsight Report 03/30/06

A volatile market now.

AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals 3.27%
VCLK Valueclick Inc 3.18%
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 2.91%
WMS WMS Indus 2.49%
NTRI NutriSystem Inc 2.33%
WBMD WebMD Health Corp Cl A 2.29%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Hindsight Report March 29, 2006

Today was a bullish day with a strong recovery from yesterday's uneasiness about the Fed raising rates once again. Many stocks in my watch list enjoyed a strong upside alpha today as you will see by my long list below:

WBMD WebMD Health Corp Cl A 11.69%
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 11.39%
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 9.86%
OATS Wild Oats Markets 6.78%
TRAD TradeStation Group 6.10%
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 4.97%
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd 4.53%
DOC Digital Angel 4.27%
HOMS Homestore Inc 4.12%
FFIV F5 Networks 4.12%
WMS WMS Indus 4.07%
HANS Hansen Natural 4.05%
SCSS Select Comfort 4.03%
MOT Motorola, Inc 3.87%
CTLM Centillium Communications 3.81%
GIL Gildan Activewear Inc 3.81%
SYK Stryker Corp 3.63%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 3.55%
EXPD Expeditors Intl of Washington 3.27%
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals 3.11%
PENN Penn National Gaming 2.97%
HAIN Hain Celestial Group 2.94%
DIET Inc 2.85%
QCOM Qualcomm Inc 2.78%
IPS IPSCO Inc 2.58%
BA Boeing Co 2.57%
SBUX Starbucks Corp 2.54%
EWW iShares MSCI Mexico(Free)Index 2.52%

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Hiatus over: Hindsight Report for March 23

Blogger was down last week and I just decided to take a few days off. Will be back regularly now.

Stocks showing up on my watch list today:

**NOTE: I've started linking my stock symbols through Google Finance instead of Yahoo. I like the new service quite alot including the charts and links to blogs such as mine!

LBTYA Liberty Global Inc Cl A 7.33% --Stock was up today on news that it is selling its French cable company in order to concentrate on higher growth regions of Eastern Europe. NOTE: Also look at CETV (Central European Media).
SVI Services Acquisition Corp Intl 6.61% --This acquirer of Jamba Juice bounced on a recommendation by Cramer. Probably a stock that will be on a roller coaster for awhile while the details of its acquisition come out. See PREVIOUS POST
SCSS Select Comfort 6.49% --Huge growth. The stores always seem to be empty but they are aggressively expanding and building market share.
HOMS Homestore Inc 5.99% --Internet provider of data for real-estate professionals
DIET Inc 4.95% --Everyone is on a diet.
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 4.70% --This relatively recent IPO is in the VOIP sector. Close to all time high.
YHOO Yahoo Inc 3.90% --Yahoo catching part of the tech bug today. Also watch GOOG with its after hours news that it was added to the S&P 500 today.
DOC Digital Angel 2.70% --RFID company showing some signs of life of late
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd 2.18% --Chinese solar power company. This stock performs well when oil prices go up.
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc 2.03% --Software company whose product facilitates auto dealers financing offices...Recent IPO

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Reported Hindsight for the Ides of March

Stocks participating in today's rally include:

SHLD Sears Holding Corporation 12.40%
CTLM Centillium Communications 9.77%
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 6.80%
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico 4.72%
CHS Chico's Fas 4.50%
HOMS Homestore Inc 4.45%
CX Cemex 4.39%
OATS Wild Oats Markets 4.31%
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market Inc 3.49%
POOL SCP Pool 3.36%
MOT Motorola, Inc 3.24%
NYX NYSE Group Inc 3.20%
ADSK Autodesk, Inc 3.15%
NWRE Neoware Inc 2.74%
MOH Molina Healthcare 2.72%
PENN Penn National Gaming 2.51%
CETV Central Euro Media 2.45%
SCSS Select Comfort 2.41%
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 2.31%
HANS Hansen Natural 2.22%
BBD Banco Bradesco 2.18%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Link? First all link post for the Trading Alamanac

I won't be doing this everyday but here are some interesting links:

Bond Guru Bill Gross describes a typical work day. An hour and a half of yoga right in the middle of the trading day and he can still personally manage $200 billion dollars. Lots of respect to you Bill.

Here are screen shots of the Google calendar that is currently in beta testing. I can't wait until this is available as it will tie in with my gmail account (need an invite to gmail? let me know: tradingalmanac AT gmail DOT com). The link also gives a decent description of the functions that will be offered. Did I tell you I can't wait?

Real Estate Porn: This very addictive website provides home valuation without the fees and registration required by other websites. Also, you can see satellite maps of whole neighborhoods with each house's value and also the site provides great comparable sales. There are many who have knocked Zillow for being quite inaccurate but I challenge you to check it out for less than an hour...

Triple Hindsight Report: Friday, Monday, and Tuesday

It has been a flurry of activity here in Tacoma WA, I compare my crazy life right now to our Spring weather: in a 24 period late last week we had snow, freezing rain, hail, thunder and lightning, sunshine, rain, and temperatures from 30 to 50 degrees.

I guess the condition of the market would compare with the weather as well. Crazy and unexplainable ups and downs with a tendancy towards improvement. Today the Dow and the S&P 500 hit 4 1/2 year highs with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 only a couple percentage points behind them.

Today, many many stocks enjoyed a fairly broad market rally. Stocks with any kind of upside beta (definition of beta) seemed to do especially well. I'll list today's Hindsight stocks first, then Monday's, and finally Friday's. Be sure to check out some new names that will be highlighted for the first time.

Hindsight Report for Tuesday the 14th of March, 2006

SVI Services Acquisition Corp Intl 20.81% --This company is a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) that just recently purchased Jamba Juice for $265 million. The stock is on fire right now. I'll buy some tomorrow if it continues to go up but probably just for a day trade. Once it settles down, I'll consider it longer-term as Jamba Juice could be a good growth story.
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 12.19%--Chipotle beat all estimates in a blowout quarter
GS Goldman Sachs Group 6.31%--Goldman is growing. Fast. They also had a great quarter
ECA EnCana Corporation 5.57%--This Canadian natural gas company also has the rights to broad expanses on the Rockies, mainly Wyoming.
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc 5.38%--One of my favorite stocks for trading, this manufacturer of GPS semiconductors is performing very well of late
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 4.80%--VOIP stock, not a long term investment but good for trading
DIET Inc 4.46%--Know anyone that is dieting or needs to diet?
MOH Molina Healthcare 4.38%--My insurance company!
NYX NYSE Group Inc 4.24%--Strong since its IPO, now rumors that it might bid for the London Stock Exchange...
TRAD TradeStation Group 4.12%--Received the highest rating in Barron's for online brokerage. Also has very active trading clients with larger than average accounts.
STP Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd 3.94%--Alt energy company, strong sector right now
EBAY Ebay Inc 3.88%--The internet stocks had a good day, but are still down pretty big for the year. Including my biggest holding, Google.
YHOO Yahoo Inc 3.65%--see EBAY.
HAIN Hain Celestial Group 3.49%--Organic and 'natural' food is in, Hain should be a good stock to own
SBUX Starbucks Corp 3.48%--Why am I not in Starbucks? Is it not performing well? No... Is it not a growth story? No.... First pullback, and I'm in.
DDDC Deltathree Inc 3.47%--another VOIP stock
CD Cendant Corp 3.39%--poorly managed conglomerate, discussing a series of spin-offs
ISE International Securities Exchange 3.25%--Number 11 on the IBD 100
AMX America Movil 3.12%--Number 1 cellular company in Mexico, expanding rapidly throughout Latin America
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide 2.94%--Logistics and shipping company doing well and highly recommended by Jon Markman.
ARRS Arris Group 2.81%--Equipment provider to the broadband, cable, and VOIP industries
CHS Chico's Fas 2.76%--Higher end retailer recovering after very disappointing earnings, the stock has a 10 year average of around 60% annual returns
GME Gamestop Corp 2.71%--Cramer sold his Gamestop on today's strength siting a potential slow down in video game sales while Sony and Nintendo work to get there new game systems to market.
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc 2.59%--Part of a sector rally in the brokerages
DOC Digital Angel 2.53%--a RFID company...
BSC Bear Stearns Cos 2.50%--sharing Goldman Sach's strength, Bear reports earnings on the 16th and I expect them to be impressive
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp New 2.43%--Tough stock to own but enjoying a good rally this year in the weak internet sector. Spun-off Expedia last year. Watch for more wheeling and dealing from CEO Diller in the year ahead.
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals 2.42%--This company has a nice drug portfolio including a key diabetes treatment
CWTR Coldwater Creek 2.42%--I just sold this great company last week at its all time high and it is still going up
BBD Banco Bradesco SA 2.36%--This Brazilian bank has a high beta, up today
PEET Peet's Coffee & Tea 2.33%--The company responsible for the existence of Starbucks is now more like its ugly step-sibling. I'm watching it though because of recent strength in all restaurant/coffee stocks
EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (ETF) 2.31%--This ETF mimicks the broad Mexican stock market. Rates are at all time lows in Mexico sparking lots of investment. Also, the largest reserve of petroleum in Mexico's history was recently discovered...
QCOM Qualcomm Inc 2.26%--Up with other tech stocks today
RNWK RealNetworks Inc 2.26%--Rhapsody or iTunes?
GILD Gilead Sciences 2.24%--Great portfolio of HIV drugs and a bird flu play
MOT Motorola, Inc 2.15%--Razr phones are recalled by Cingular and T-Mobile and the stock is up....???
GIL Gildan Activewear Inc 2.15%--Hot stock in the sportswear sector.
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 2.08%--Powerful insurance/HMO company
AMGN Amgen Inc 2.05%--Biotech is strong of late and Amgen is one of the powerhorses.

Hindsight Report for Monday March 13

SVI Services Acquisition Corp Intl 16.04%
DOC Digital Angel 13.51%
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 8.76%
NYX NYSE Group Inc 6.98%
JSDA Jones Soda 6.45%
FFIV F5 Networks 4.69%
HANS Hansen Natural 4.57%
SYK Stryker Corp 3.82%
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 3.38%
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico 3.21%
ECA EnCana Corporation 3.10%
WMS WMS Indus 2.49%
ARRS Arris Group 2.38%
ISE International Securities Exchange 2.28%
AMX America Movil 2.25%
TEVA Teva Pharma 2.21%
CWTR Coldwater Creek 2.20%
WBMD WebMD Health Corp 2.13%
TRAD TradeStation Group 2.04%
SCSS Select Comfort 2.02%
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals 1.99%

Hindsight Report for Friday March 10, 2006--

Banco Bradesco SA 3.70%
CBEY Cbeyond Communications 3.34%
CETV Central Euro Media 4.55%
CHS Chico's Fas 1.96%
CME Chicago Merc Exchange 3.38%
CWTR Coldwater Creek 1.88%
EGHT 8x8 Inc 8.33%
HANS Hansen Natural 7.89%
HOMS Homestore Inc 2.32%
IPS IPSCO Inc 4.65%
ISE International Securities Exchange 2.44%
JWN Nordstrom, Inc 2.72%
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market Inc 9.37%
NWRE Neoware Inc 7.00%
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 5.75%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Hindsight Report for Thursday the 9th of March

Sorry I missed yesterday---it's crazy around here. Anyway, today was a lousy day for most stocks but there were exceptions!! One great stock today was Coldwater Creek (CWTR) which I luckily have owned since late January. I sold it today as it was up over 16% after posting some great earnings for the 4th quarter.

BA Boeing Co 1.21%
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 4.17%
CHH Choice Hotels Intl 2.58%
ISE International Securities Exchange Inc 5.91%
JSDA Jones Soda 7.09%
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market Inc 2.43%
NWRE Neoware Inc 8.46%
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico 1.72%
POOL SCP Pool 2.67%
TKO Telkonet Inc 2.36%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Hindsight Report for Tuesday the 7th of March

Not a very nice session, stocks in general were weaker than the indices.

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc 2.06% --Financial Advisory spin-off from American Express.
CETV Central Euro Media 1.94% --Eastern European cable company growing quickly
ISE International Securities Exchange Inc 3.93% --Rest of the broker/exchange sector was weak today, but not ISE!
MOH Molina Healthcare 1.85% --Molina continues its gradual move upwards
PENN Penn National Gaming 13.97% --HUGE move today, upgraded.
POOL SCP Pool 1.57% --Pool with a nice return today
QCOM Qualcomm Inc 1.33% --only 3% from their 52 wk high, might be a stock to watch here
WBMD WebMD Health Corp Cl A 2.46% --Another day on the list for this internet health company

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Monday, March 06, 2006

Hindsight Report for March (Madness) the 6th, 2006

Stocks performing well on my watch list today include:

Cbeyond Communications Inc 1.68% --This VOIP company has had some recent strength
CBOU Caribou Coffee Company Inc 2.23% --Caribou is a midwest version of Starbucks and Peets, its followers swear by its great coffee flavor. The stock has been volatile since its IPO in 2005
DIET Inc 5.03% --Not sure about the business model for this company but the stock can move up quickly
HANS Hansen Natural 4.55% --A favorite whipping boy for financial journalists when they write about overvalued stocks, Hansens has gone up a few THOUSAND percent in the last few years and is threatening to hit an all time high tomorrow
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc 1.87% --another high flyer from the exchange/broker industry subset
PENN Penn National Gaming 5.07% --look at my previous description for Penn Gaming. Read Feb 15 post HERE

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Friday, March 03, 2006

Hindsight Report for Friday, March 3, 2006

Stocks I would have liked to own today:

CBOU Caribou Coffee Company Inc 2.99%
CETV Central Euro Media 2.20%
CTLM Centillium Communications 4.01%
ECA EnCana Corporation 1.57%
EGHT 8x8 Inc 5.29%
GME Gamestop Corp 'A' 1.49%
HOMS Homestore Inc 11.20%
NDAQ Nasdaq Stock Market 1.78%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Hindsight Report: Thursday the 2nd of March, 2006

All indices were down today but many stocks were up! The market is being very selective right now making good stock selection vital! This is not a throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and buy the stock it lands on kind of market, no sir!

Stocks I would have liked to own today include:

AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 2.63%
BOT CBOT Holdings Inc 3.89%
CBEY Cbeyond Communications Inc 6.38%
CETV Central Euro Media Enter'A' 6.38%
CTLM Centillium Communications 6.21%
ECA EnCana Corporation 3.47%
HANS Hansen Natural 2.79%
IPS IPSCO Inc 2.44%
ISE Intl Securities Exchange Inc 2.47%
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions 2.53%
TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc 2.38%
WBMD WebMD Health Corp Cl A 2.03%

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Hindsight Report: March 1, 2006

There was an abundance of stocks enjoying a rally today, some that looked good on my watch list include:

ADSK Autodesk, Inc 10.70% --Great earnings released today
AMX America Movil 2.88% --The Mexican and Brazilian markets are still on fire, AMX is growing as well
ARRS Arris Group 6.54% --Equipment manufacturer for the broadband industry, a historically risky and volatile sector.
BBD Banco Bradesco SA 3.86% --Brazilian bank breaking out to new highs
CETV Central Euro Media 3.18% --This stock has a large underlying bid right now
EWW iShares MSCI Mexico Index (ETF) 2.35% --ETF mimicking the Mexican stock market
GIL Gildan Activewear Inc 4.97% --Up and coming casual/sportswear company
GME Gamestop Corp 2.37% --Not sure this is the best stock right now with Sony delaying release dates of next gaming box
HANS Hansen Natural 2.26% --Hans is getting close to its all time high again. Some resistance at $100/share
HXM Desarrolladora Homex SA de CV 2.33% --Mexican homebuilder. *Anecdote* 2 of my brothers-in-law are buying homes in Mexico this month. Real estate is on fire in Mexico. Capital is more available than ever.
IPS IPSCO Inc 4.48% --There are a few steel stocks going up daily of late.
LRW Labor Ready 2.60% --Just announced a new CEO. Market seems to like the choice.
MOH Molina Healthcare 3.45% --My insurance company, not sure if I'd want to own the stock though
MOT Motorola, Inc 3.22% --Moving up nicely from a lower trend line. Riding the recent tech rally?
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico 3.82% --Recent IPO manages a number of Mexican airports
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc 4.52% --Up again, seems to be on hindsight report everyday
SIRF SiRF Technology Holdings Inc 9.30% --An all time high for SiRF! This GPS chip maker is experiencing lots of growth of late
TEVA Teva Pharm Indus ADR 3.43% --Analysts like this generic drug maker out of Israel.

The Hindsight Report STORY

Please read the Trading Almanac DISCLOSURE